Lecture 15 (7 November 07)
Understanding
Online Game Industry in the United States (Present-Future)
Abstract: This lecture focuses on overall trends
in the U.S. game industry three to five years into the future
(2010-2012). Emphasis is directed to identifying lessons learned from
the past, present, future game development trends, and new game
technologies that can help inform and guide how best to develop
online games for the U.S. and other global markets.
- Game types
- Game engines
- Game systems
- Game play experiences
Caveat: We do NOT know the future, and we CANNOT predict the future with certainty.
- Therefore, all materials for this lecture should be considered
speculations or extrapolations on current/recent advanced in game
culture and technology.
However, what if we were able to make a few good guesses about what could be achieved in the next 3-5 years?
- The rewards or failures of innovation go to those who act, not to those who don't.
- Those who do not act, cannot be expected to experience dramatic growth or market share or revenue.
- Success in the game industry is most frequently associated with
the efforts of those who innovate, and not to those who merely try to
copy the successes of others.
- We make no claim for potential for success, nor of potential for
financial reward--instead we focus on what is possible and probable.
Game Types
How many different types of
computer/video game will there be 3-5 years from now? This is a simple question, with a less
than simple answer.
Current game types/genres:
- Action
- Adventure
- Fighting
- Racing
- Role Playing Games
- Simulations
- Sports
- Strategy
- Music, Rhythm, Dance/Movement/Exercise
- Parlor, Card and Board Games
- Puzzle
- Massively Multiplayer Online
Games
Future game types/genres in the next 3-5 years (2010-2012)
- MMOG hybrids
- Casual MMOGs
- Game-based virtual worlds
- Web 3.0 web sites
- Social networking games
- games that combine social networking sites or services with games
- example: games for MySpace
- Combinations of existing game types
- Game mashups
- Mashup
- a mashup is a web application
that combines data from more than one source into a single integrated
tool
- a typical example is the use of cartographic data from Google Maps to add location information to real-estate data from Craigslist, thereby creating a new and distinct web service that was not originally envisaged by either source.
- content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API.
- people are experimenting with mashups using Amazon, eBay, Flickr, Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo APIs, which has led to the creation of the Mashup editor
- Mashup development editors
- Game mashup
- a game that combines data (game assets, characters
(appearance), world levels) from more than one source into a single
integrated game.
- Example: combine your personalized in-game character from Unreal Tournament 3 as your avatar for use
- game mashups may first appear with games allowing for "open content sources" or content modding
- games developed with a common game engine using common game data/asset representation formats
- games that can import data from Web feeds for open content syndication (e.g., RSS or Atom), web services, or screen scraping.
- Early game example: Majestic
- game was played by phone, email, AOL Instant Messenger, fax, and by visiting special websites.
- Gameplay frequently involved the player receiving clues that they would use to solve puzzles
and unravel the story.
- All the messages were automated, with limited
dialog options, but AIM provided some interactive conversations.
- expect early game mashups to appear for puzzle games and parlor games
- Game mechanic mashup
- a game that combines the code or scripted behavioral animations from one or more games into a single integrated game
- more difficult to develop than game mashups
- requires open source game engines, at minimum
- further requires in-depth understanding of multiple game
engines as well as where and how they implement different game mechanic
functionality
- most likely only to appear in new game engines that are designed for open game mechanic mashups
- may be a viable technical-business strategy for a new game company seeking to establish itself as technological innovator
- New game genres
- location-based games (LBGs)
- games designed and implemented to be played at a destination
venue (e.g., night club, theme park, school, business enterprise) where
surrounding physical setting or devices allow for situated game play
- example: DinoQuest and DinoQuest Online at the Discovery Science Center
- DinoQuest is a unique physical environment that provides experiential game play and science learning
- quest-style game play using unique but reusable
user-identified wireless InfraRed "wands" and embedded sensor net to
explore and complete game play tasks
- similar LBGs can be developed for
- theme parks (e.g., Disneyland)
- game-based fantasy world for "immersive entertainment" (e.g., MagiQuest)
- museums
- regional science centers
- corporate training facilities and workplaces (e.g., factories)
- libraries
- schools
- cultural centers
- sports stadium or sports complex (e.g. Daegu World Cup Stadium)
- other venues where alternate reality tools and techniques can be employed
Game engines
From past-current of game engines:
-
Game engines should be designed to
support a family of related games (a game “product line”) for
games of a given type.
- Game engines should be designed to support multiple
types of games
-
Game engines will continue to support
multiple player game play using one of four common architectural
forms
Looking forward, game engine technology may advance in the following areas:
- multi-core game engines and development environments
- especially those that can scale from 2-128 processor cores
- integrated with massively parallel database management systems (DBMS)
- integrated with embedded contextual indexing and search services
- see Virtual Worlds 2010+ demo from earlier presentation lectures
- Flash game engines with MMOG back-end servers
- integrated with scalable DBMS
- potentially able to handle game play events (user moves, mouse selections, etc.) as database transactions
- potentially using in-memory DBMS for performance
- heterogeneous device interface game engines or game engine library
- providing high-level service APIs to new devices like video cameras, GPS units, etc.
- multi-engine game engine
- game engine that integrates middleware engine plug-ins
- example: game engine and development environment that can
integrate physics engine (hardware/software-based), chemistry engine,
biology engine, psychology engine, sociology engine, etc.
- game engines supporting very high-level (end-user) engine mods
- enabling end-users to easily perform genre-level mods
- enabling end-users to configure game genre plug-ins supporting game mechanic mashups
Game systems
The type of game systems used to
support game play can determine or constrain the possible modes of
game play and player action.
-
Mainframe-class enterprise computing systems (or system
clusters) to support massive scale networked game
play.
- Network-based game play accommodating multiple players (i.e., at least two players, each with
a distinct player control interface, like a computer terminal).
-
Arcade-based game will dominate gaming casinos
-
Console-based games will take market share from PCs
-
Internet-based game systems will be synonymous with PC games
-
Handheld personal game systems will constitute mobile consoles, and support console games
- Mobile/cell phone-based game
systems need to be designed to accommodate the capabilities and
limitations of the cellular phone system as a data network, and will grow to support social networking services.
New game systems are likely to emerge for:
- Location-based game systems
- Example: Creative Kingdoms is a leading company developing location-specific interactive play worlds
- Off-line (stand-alone) game environment; self-contained
- employs user-specific wireless player control device (infra-red
wand) to designate/illuminate embedded play-task sensors to trigger
corresponding response or environmental effect (play video, emit smoke,
open/close apparatus, etc.)
- business revenue model tied to (a) venue design and
development, (b) operation, (c) in-game/near-game cross-merchandising,
and (d) facilities support, as well as (e) proprietary intellectual
property (patent) license fees.
- Televisions game consoles
- new LCD/LED televisions with game player plug-ins (hardware/software), and/or accepting new TV game console cartridges
Game play experiences
Based on the types of games (i.e., the
software that enacts game scenarios) and game systems identified
above, it becomes possible to recognize a variety of visually
observable modalities of game play expressed as player actions
affected through the game system’s player control interface. These
include:
- discrete turn-taking game play
- goal-oriented, winner-loser
game play
- exploration, climatic game play
- mediated game play
- exploration, experiential game
play
- collaborative, team-based game
play
- intense continuous
reactive/proactive game play
- game play in immersive
interactive simulations in virtual worlds
Given advances in game types, game engines, and game systems, we may
expect to see additional game play experiences that include:
- venue-specific or destination-oriented game play
- moving from entertain-type of venues with little/no game play, or off-line game play, to interactive online game play
- game mediated social experience
- arising as games are merged with social networking sites, services, and activities
- example: virtual dating games