Publications & Technical Reports | |
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R281 | |
Graph-based Complexity for Causal Effect by Empirical Plug-in
Rina Dechter, Anna K. Raichev, Jin Tian, and Alexander Ihler.
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Abstract
This paper focuses on the computational
complexity of computing empirical plug-in
estimates for causal effect queries. Given
a causal graph and observational data, any
identifiable causal query can be estimated
from an expression over the observed variables, called the estimand. The estimand can
then be evaluated by plugging in probabilities computed empirically from data. In contrast to conventional wisdom which assumes
that high dimensional probabilistic functions
will lead to exponential evaluation time, we
show that estimand evaluation can be done
efficiently, potentially in time linear in the
data size, depending on the estimand's hypergraph. In particular, we show that both
the treewidth and hypertree width of the estimand's structure bound the evaluation complexity, analogous to their role in bounding
the complexity of inference in probabilistic
graphical models. In settings with high dimensional functions, the hypertree width often provides a more effective bound, since the
empirical distributions are sparse.
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