BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//UC Irvine Donald Bren School of Information & Computer Sciences - ECPv6.3.4//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:UC Irvine Donald Bren School of Information & Computer Sciences
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://ics.uci.edu
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for UC Irvine Donald Bren School of Information & Computer Sciences
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:America/Los_Angeles
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0800
TZOFFSETTO:-0700
TZNAME:PDT
DTSTART:20260308T100000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0700
TZOFFSETTO:-0800
TZNAME:PST
DTSTART:20261101T090000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20260129T160000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20260129T170000
DTSTAMP:20260419T020832
CREATED:20260120T180215Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260120T180215Z
UID:27719-1769702400-1769706000@ics.uci.edu
SUMMARY:Likelihood-based Inference for Dynamical Survival Analysis  Epidemic Models
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Stochastic compartmental models are fundamental tools in epidemic modeling. A recent idea termed Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA) replaces a stochastic population-level hazard in these models by its large population limit\, yielding a more tractable approximation. We consider inferential considerations under this model framework\, including marginal likelihoods that enable model fitting to partially observed surveillance data\, and variance corrections to correct biased uncertainty estimates due to the deterministic approximation. We derive a remarkably simple expression for a likelihood given only case count data\, and show that a Gaussian Process variation can reintroduce the missing variance component in a hierarchical model. These contributions allow for straightforward inference using generic statistical software such as STAN\, and are applied to several case studies and simulated experiments.
URL:https://ics.uci.edu/event/likelihood-based-inference-for-dynamical-survival-analysis-epidemic-models/
LOCATION:Donald Bren Hall\, Irvine\, CA\, 92697\, United States
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://ics.uci.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Jason_Xu_resize.jpg
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR